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印度ITC销售增速因卷烟涨价减缓至四年来最低

2013年10月31日 来源:烟草在线据彭博社报道编译 作者:
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  烟草在线据彭博社报道编译  印度最大的烟草公司ITC公司报告,在其提高卷烟价格致使其最大的业务需求锐减之后,其销售增长的速度减缓至4年来的最低点。公司的股票也下跌了。

  10月24日,总部位于印度加尔各答的ITC公司说,在截止9月底的3个月中,ITC公司的净销售增长8.8%,达到778亿卢比(13亿美元)。这是自截止2009年6月底的季度以来销售增幅最小的一个季度,并且未能达到彭博公司编写的由31名分析师预估的中间值811亿卢比。

  今年9月,ITC公司将一些卷烟品牌的价格提高了10%之多,使得第二季度的净收入增加了21%。据ICICI Direct公司的分析师Sanjay Manyal说,从长期来看,该公司通过对最畅销的产品提价来提高利润的战略的发展是不可持续的,因为销售增速减缓显示,该公司正在以“令人担忧”的速度失去吸烟者。

  在孟买工作的Sanjay Manyal在接受电话采访时说:“销售增长减缓几乎在所有的产品部门都很明显。”在上个季度,卷烟销量可能至少下降了7%。他说:“这次卷烟销量的下滑,可能是大约5年来下滑幅度最大的一次。”

  10月24日,ITC的股票在孟买下跌了0.8%,跌至340.05卢比。该公司股票今年已经上涨了19%,而基准指数S&P BSE Sensex则上涨了6.5%。

  利润攀升

  经营从肥皂到宾馆业务的财团ITC说,公司截止9月底的这个季度的净收入从上年同期的184亿卢比增长至223亿卢比。与之相比,彭博公司编写的由31名分析师预估的中间值为212亿卢比。

  Sanjay Manyal说,卷烟总销售比一年前增长了11%。在过去一年里,ITC公司将自己的卷烟价格平均提高了18%,以抵偿政府征收的较高的消费税。

  Microsec资本公司在加尔各答工作的分析师Naveen Vyas在接受采访时说,由于再三提价,一些吸食ITC公司的Gold Flake和Classic Milds牌卷烟的消费者要么转向了其竞争对手生产的更为便宜的产品,要么代之以被称为比迪烟或嚼烟的印度手卷烟。

  ITC公司宾馆业务的税前利润下降了43%,减少至8720万卢比。ITC公司说:“一方面,餐饮业继续受到主要国际客源市场和印度普遍疲软的经济状况的负面影响,同时,在印度的一些主要城市供应的住处大大增加的情况,也给餐饮业带来了消极影响。”

  Motilal Oswal证券公司的分析师Rakesh Tarway通过电子邮件发表评论说:“扣除卷烟业务的利税前的收益颇丰,达到65%。在未来的数个季度中,卷烟销量的任何增长都会给卷烟业务带来巨额的息税前利润增长。”

India: ITC Sales Growth Slows to 4-Year Low on Higher Cigarette Prices

  ITC Ltd. (ITC), India's biggest tobacco company, posted the slowest pace of sales growth in four years after an increase in the price of its cigarettes damped demand at its biggest business. Shares fell.

  Net sales rose 8.8 percent to 77.8 billion rupees ($1.3 billion) in the three months ended September, the Kolkata-based company said yesterday. That was the smallest jump since the quarter ended June 2009 and missed the 81.1 billion-rupee median of 31 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  ITC raised prices of some brands of cigarettes by as much as 10 percent in September, helping lift net income 21 percent in the second quarter. The company's strategy of boosting its profits by charging more for its best-selling products is not sustainable in the long term as the slowing growth suggests the company is losing smokers at a rate "that's a cause for concern," according to Sanjay Manyal, an analyst at ICICI Direct.

  "Slower sales growth is very much visible in almost all the segments," Mumbai-based Manyal said in a phone interview. Volume of cigarette sales likely fell by at least 7 percent in the last quarter, he said. "This could well be the sharpest drop in cigarette volumes in about 5 years."

  ITC fell 0.8 percent to 340.05 rupees in Mumbai yesterday. The stock has climbed 19 percent this year, while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex has gained 6.5 percent.

  Profit Jumps

  Net income rose to 22.3 billion rupees in the quarter from 18.4 billion rupees a year earlier, the soaps-to-hotels conglomerate said. That compared with the 21.2 billion-rupee median of 31 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

  Cigarette gross sales grew 11 percent from a year earlier. In the past one year, ITC raised prices of its cigarettes by an average 18 percent to compensate for higher excise taxes levied by the government, Manyal said.

  As a result of these repeated price increases, some consumers smoking its Gold Flake and Classic Milds cigarettes are either switching to cheaper products made by rivals, or substitutes like hand-rolled Indian cigarettes called bidis or chewing tobacco, Naveen Vyas, Kolkata-based analyst at Microsec Capital Ltd. said in an interview.

  Profit before tax at its hotels business fell 43 percent to 87.2 million rupees. "The hospitality sector continued to be adversely impacted by the weak economic conditions prevailing in major international source markets and India on the one hand, and significant additions to room supplies in key Indian cities," ITC said.

  Earnings before interest and tax "margin for cigarette business came at a hefty 65 percent," Rakesh Tarway, an analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd., said in e-mailed comments. "Any volume growth in cigarettes during the coming quarters will bring in huge EBIT growth for the cigarettes business." Enditem

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